Insights

Perspectives on biopharma capital and deals.

Our point of view on the market forces shaping biopharma transactions, published as short, data-driven briefs.

Biotech's Misplaced Bet cover page
June 2026

Biotech's Misplaced Bet

More than $20B in AI-biotech deal value has poured into drug discovery since 2020, while roughly 80% of trials face enrollment delays: clinical operations remains the industry's largest unaddressed value leak.

  • $20B+ in announced AI-biotech deal value since 2020, concentrated in discovery
  • ~80% of trials face enrollment delays; 9 in 10 double their planned timeline
  • Operational AI shows faster, more measurable ROI today than discovery-stage AI
Royalty Financing: Aligning Capital at the Asset Level cover page
May 2026

Royalty Financing: Aligning Capital at the Asset Level

Royalty financing has scaled to $32B+ but still represents under 10% of biopharma funding: a structural mismatch between how capital is raised at the company level and how it needs to be deployed at the asset level.

  • Royalty finance deal value grew from $5.2B (2020) to $7.1B (2025)
  • ~90% of executives are now willing to consider royalty financing
  • Applies the Capital Calibration Lens to funding structure, not just diligence
The Scale Imperative in Biopharma cover page
April 2026

The Scale Imperative in Biopharma

Roughly 100 assets are expected to drive ~80% of $200B in incremental industry revenue through 2030, leaving a widening set of clinically validated, capital-starved assets overlooked.

  • ~100 assets projected to drive ~80% of ~$200B in incremental revenue, 2024–2030
  • External sourcing is expected to contribute 48% of growth, and rising
  • Mid-sized, niche, and divested programs are increasingly mispriced, not lower quality
The Reverse Migration of Biotech cover page
March 2026

The Reverse Migration of Biotech

Asia now drives 43% of the global innovative drug pipeline, up from 28% five years ago, and accounted for more than 85% of pipeline growth in 2024. The competitive edge is shifting from asset access to underwriting rigor.

  • Asia's share of the global pipeline grew from 28% (2019) to 43% (2024)
  • China out-licensing upfronts topped $800M in 2024, up from under $100M in 2020
  • Maps three emerging risk categories for Western capital: data translation, indication reset, and structural deal overhang
From Binary Bets to Calibrated Value cover page
February 2026

From Binary Bets to Calibrated Value

Biopharma M&A volume is down 40–50% from 2021 levels, not because the science failed, but because expectations, capital assumptions, and scope never recalibrated to what the data actually supports.

  • Global M&A deal volume down ~40–50% from 2021 levels, with milestones now a larger share of deal value than upfront payments
  • A growing share of distressed assets have clear biological rationale: they stall on expectations, not evidence
  • Introduces the Calibration Lens: evidence maturity, capital intensity, and commercial scope

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